Rational Choice and Judgment: Decision Analysis for the Decider 理想选择与判断：决定者的决策分析
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作者： Rex Brown 著
出 版 社： 吉林长白山
出版时间： 2005-4-1字数：版次： 1页数： 245印刷时间： 2005/04/01开本： 16开印次： 1纸张： 胶版纸I S B N ： 9780471202370包装： 精装内容简介
The tools needed to make a better, more informed decision.
Decision analysis (DA) is the logic of making a decision using quantitative models of the decider’s factual and value judgments. DA is already widely used in business, government, medicine, economics, law, and science. However, most resources present only the logic and models rather than demonstrating how these methods can be effectively applied to the real world. This book offers an innovative approach to decision analysis by focusing on decision-making tools that can be utilized immediately to make better, more informed decisions. It uses no mathematics beyond arithmetic.
Examining how deciders think about their choices, this book provides problem-solving techniques that not only reflect sound modeling but also meet other essential requirements: they build on the thinking and knowledge that deciders already possess; they provide knowledge in a form that people are able and willing to provide; they produce results that the decider can use; and they are based on intimate and continuous interactions with the decider. The methods outlined in this text take into account such factors as the use, the user, the organization, available data, and subjective knowledge.
Replete with exercises, case studies, and observations from the author’s own extensive consulting experience, the book quickly engages readers and enables them to master decision analysis by doing rather than by simply reading. Using familiar situations, it demonstrates how to handle knowledge as it unfolds in the real world. A term project is presented in the final chapter, in which readers can select an actual decision-making problem and apply their newfound tools to prepare a recommendation. A sample report is provided in the appendix.
Beginning with qualitative structuring, the text advances to sophisticated quantitative skills that can be applied in both public and private enterprise, including:
Modeling decision-making under conditions of uncertainty or multiple objectives
Risk analysis and assessment
Communicating and justifying controversial decisions
Personal life choices and political judgments
Adapting decision aid to organizations
The book’s broad applicability makes it an excellent resource for any organization or as a textbook for decision-making courses in a variety of fields, including public policy, business management, systems engineering and general education.
An Instructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all the problems in the book is available from the Wiley editorial department (email ialine@wiley.com) or directly from rexvbrown@aol.com.
This book deals with logical methods for the improvement of decision making in public and private enterprises. It promotes the development and use of logical methods for the improvement of decision-making in public and private enterprise. Such methods include models for decision-making under conditions of uncertainty or multiple objectives; techniques of risk analysis and risk assessment; experimental and descriptive studies of decision-making behavior; economic analysis of competitive and strategic decisions; and techniques for facilitating decision-making by groups.
作者简介
REX BROWN was trained as a social scientist and statistician. He currently holds the position of Distinguished Senior Fellow in the School of Public Policy at George Mason University. He has worked as a decision-making adviser to government and business leaders, and has taught decision analysis for statistics, psychology, and management programs at Harvard Business School, Cambridge University, and the London School of Economics and Political Science.
目录
Preface
Who Might Use This Book
Background
Substance of this Book
Pedagogy
Demands on Students and Instructor
Other Approaches, Other Materials
Author Background
Acknowledgments
Prolog: A Baby Delivery Dilemma
1Basics and Overview
2Uses of Decision Analysis
Appendix 2A: Decision Analysis Reflects on His Work
3Evaluating a Choice Qualitatively
4Quantitative Aid to Rational Choice
Appendix 4A: Business Decision Tree Example
Appendix 4B: Private Example: Study or Play?
5Describing Outcomes
6Taking Preference Into Account
7Choice Under Uncertainty
Appendix 7ATechnical Notes
8Decision Aiding Strategy
Appendix 8AInfluence Sketches
9Aiding the Professional Decider
Appendix 9AEnvironmental Regulation Case Study
10Assessing and Inferring Probabilities
11Eliciting Preferences
12Applied Term Project
Appendix 12AStudent Project Report
Epilog
References
Glossary of Concepts and Terms
Index
