Extreme Events : A Physical Reconstruction and Risk Assessment自然危害与风险评估
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作者： Jonathan Nott著
出 版 社：
出版时间： 2006-5-1字数：版次： 1页数： 297印刷时间： 2006/05/01开本： 16开印次： 1纸张： 胶版纸I S B N ： 9780521824125包装： 精装内容简介
“An excellent introduction to the risk assessment of natural events such as floods，droughts，earthquakes and tsunamis。” —— Choice
The assessment of risks posed by natural hazards such as floods， droughts，earthquakes，tsunamis or cyclones，may not reflect the full range or magnitude of events possible。 As human populations grow， especially in hazard-prone areas， methods for accurately assessing natural hazard risks are becoming increasingly important。Jonathan Nott describes the many methods used to reconstruct such hazards from natural long-term records。He demonstrates how long-term records are essential in gaining a realistic understanding of the variability of natural hazards，and how short-term historical records can often misrepresent likely risks。
目录
1 Introduction
The problem with natural hazard risk assessments
The risk assessment process
Mathematical and statistical certainties versus realistic estimates
Stationarity in time series
Reality versus reasonableness
Concluding comments
Aims and scope of this book
2 Droughts
Historical droughts
Droughts and impacts
Palaeodroughts
Sand dunes
Lake sediments and geochemical signatures
Marine sediments
Foraminifera
Diatoms
Charcoal layers
Carbon isotopes
Oxygen isotopes
Nitrogen isotopes
Pollen and palaeobiology
Tree-ring analysis （dendrochronology）
Speleothem records
Conclusion
3 Floods
Causes of floods
Human-induced floods
Characteristics of flood flows
Measurement of flood flows
Floods as a natural hazard
Social and economic impacts of floods
Palaeofloods
Slackwater sediments
Plunge pool deposits
Geobotanic indicators
Flow competence measures
Channel geometry
Coral luminescence
The largest known floods on Earth
Conclusion
4 Tropical cyclones
Formation of tropical cyclones
Impacts of tropical cyclones
Palaeotempestology and the prehistoric record
Coral rubble/shingle ridges
Chenier and beach ridges
Sand splays
Washover deposits
Long-term cyclone frequencies
The intensity of prehistoric tropical cyclones
Risk assessment of tropical cyclones using historical versus prehistorical records
Future developments in palaeotempestology
Conclusion
5 Tsunamis
Tsunami characteristics and formation
Meteotsunami
Modern tsunami impacts on coasts
Erosional features
Palaeotsunami
Sand sheets
Boulder deposits
Studies of coastal boulder movements
Determining the type of wave responsible for boulder movements： a theoretical approach
Other forms of evidence for palaeotsunami
Conclusion
6 Earthquakes
7 Landslides
8 Volcanoes
9 Asteroids
10 Extreme events over time
References
Index
