本文为【香港恒生指数期货是骗人投资的吗?是黑平台吗?】的汉字拼音对照版显示拼音
香xiang港gang恒heng生sheng指zhi数shu期qi货huo是shi骗pian人ren投tou资zi的de吗ma?是shi黑hei平ping台tai吗ma?没mei有you不bu赚zhuan钱qian的de投tou资zi,只zhi有you不bu成cheng功gong的de做zuo单dan!是shi否fou赚zhuan钱qian在zai于yu买mai涨zhang买mai跌die时shi机ji的de把ba握wo,赚zhuan钱qian靠kao机ji会hui,投tou资zi靠kao智zhi慧hui,理li财cai靠kao专zhuan业ye。擅shan长chang分fen析xi期qi货huo
、期qi货huo、期qi货huo、等deng金jin融rong理li财cai投tou资zi产chan品pin。专zhuan业ye团tuan队dui在zai线xian分fen析xi,一yi对dui一yi即ji时shi指zhi导dao,为wei投tou资zi者zhe规gui避bi风feng险xian,扩kuo大da利li润run。
想xiang要yao了le解jie更geng多duo行xing情qing走zou势shi请qing咨zi询xun/qq:*********** 验yan证zheng码ma:jx305
期qi货huo高gao级ji实shi盘pan喊han单dan群qun:*********** 验yan证zheng码ma:jx305
我wo的de投tou资zi经jing历li将jiang近jin11年nian,我wo自zi己ji觉jiao得de投tou资zi企qi业ye,特te别bie是shi投tou资zi股gu票piao如ru果guo要yao赚zhuan钱qian,就jiu一yi定ding要yao对dui企qi业ye、行xing业ye有you很hen深shen的de了le解jie和he认ren识shi,特te别bie是shi最zui
终zhong做zuo决jue策ce的de时shi候hou一yi定ding要yao依yi据ju常chang识shi。我wo觉jiao得de投tou资zi不bu亏kui钱qian,要yao赚zhuan钱qian,投tou资zi思si路lu或huo投tou资zi体ti系xi就jiu一yi定ding要yao正zheng确que,因yin为wei如ru果guo你ni的de体ti系xi不bu正zheng确que,可ke能neng
你ni做zuo了le很hen多duo努nu力li但dan也ye挣zheng不bu到dao钱qian,所suo以yi我wo觉jiao得de,投tou资zi最zui重chong要yao的de事shi情qing是shi要yao找zhao到dao正zheng确que的de方fang法fa,所suo以yi我wo今jin天tian跟gen大da家jia分fen享xiang的de就jiu是shi我wo这zhe11年nian以yi来lai做zuo
投tou资zi的de感gan悟wu和he方fang法fa。很hen多duo朋peng友you是shi从cong外wai地di不bu远yuan千qian里li过guo来lai的de,我wo觉jiao得de一yi定ding要yao拿na出chu一yi点dian干gan货huo跟gen大da家jia分fen享xiang,不bu希xi望wang大da家jia白bai来lai一yi趟tang。
首shou先xian我wo跟gen大da家jia分fen享xiang什shen么me是shi确que定ding性xing。“确que定ding性xing”这zhe三san个ge字zi非fei常chang抽chou象xiang,如ru果guo用yong在zai投tou资zi里li可ke能neng更geng加jia抽chou象xiang,我wo们men先xian从cong生sheng活huo里li来lai找zhao什shen么me叫jiao确que定ding
性xing。我wo个ge人ren觉jiao得de如ru果guo一yi个ge人ren活huo到dao60岁sui、70岁sui时shi最zui大da的de确que定ding性xing就jiu是shi接jie近jin死si亡wang,不bu会hui觉jiao得de还huan能neng活huo很hen长chang很hen长chang,这zhe不bu可ke能neng,虽sui然ran他ta不bu想xiang面mian对dui;
还huan有you一yi个ge确que定ding性xing,如ru果guo现xian实shi中zhong有you10个ge医yi生sheng中zhong8、9个ge人ren都dou说shuo某mou一yi个ge人ren病bing了le,那na这zhe个ge人ren病bing的de可ke能neng性xing非fei常chang大da,基ji本ben是shi99%以yi上shang。这zhe就jiu是shi确que定ding
性xing,即ji概gai率lv很hen大da,没mei有you说shuo“绝jue对dui”,因yin为wei我wo觉jiao得de做zuo投tou资zi最zui大da的de一yi个ge避bi讳hui就jiu是shi追zhui求qiu100%的de正zheng确que。很hen多duo人ren在zai追zhui求qiu100%的de正zheng确que,即ji用yong放fang大da镜jing
去qu看kan一yi个ge事shi物wu,结jie果guo他ta看kan到dao非fei常chang多duo的de漏lou洞dong,这zhe也ye是shi很hen多duo在zai某mou一yi个ge上shang市shi公gong司si工gong作zuo的de人ren不bu会hui买mai自zi己ji公gong司si的de股gu票piao的de原yuan因yin。因yin为wei用yong放fang大da镜jing看kan问wen
题ti会hui忽hu略lue很hen多duo常chang识shi。
还huan有you一yi个ge在zai生sheng活huo中zhong体ti现xian的de“确que定ding性xing”——当dang绝jue大da多duo数shu人ren都dou知zhi道dao买mai房fang子zi一yi定ding赚zhuan钱qian的de时shi候hou,那na么me离li亏kui钱qian也ye不bu远yuan了le。为wei什shen么me这zhe么me说shuo呢ne?我wo
说shuo的de意yi思si不bu是shi所suo有you人ren都dou会hui亏kui钱qian,而er是shi说shuo从cong投tou资zi的de角jiao度du来lai讲jiang,当dang一yi个ge事shi情qing被bei很hen多duo人ren认ren同tong的de时shi候hou,那na么me它ta的de价jia格ge,或huo者zhe说shuo确que定ding性xing的de东dong西xi一yi
定ding是shi到dao顶ding了le,我wo不bu敢gan确que定ding这zhe个ge顶ding是shi什shen么me时shi候hou,但dan时shi间jian已yi经jing在zai来lai临lin。当dang然ran,我wo也ye不bu是shi很hen赞zan成cheng很hen多duo人ren把ba自zi己jiwy的de一yi套tao房fang子zi卖mai掉diao去qu买mai股gu票piao,
我wo觉jiao得de这zhe对dui于yu一yi般ban投tou资zi者zhe来lai讲jiang风feng险xian是shi非fei常chang大da的de,因yin为wei投tou资zi作zuo为wei业ye内nei人ren士shi看kan来lai是shi非fei常chang非fei常chang难nan的de,特te别bie是shi持chi续xu的de赚zhuan钱qian是shi很hen难nan的de。如ru果guo你ni在zai
2002、2003年nian有you过guo投tou资zi房fang产chan的de经jing历li,那na么me你ni会hui发fa现xian,这zhe十shi年nian下xia来lai你ni的de房fang子zi在zai任ren何he一yi个ge地di方fang都dou升sheng值zhi五wu倍bei以yi上shang,但dan你ni算suan算suan你ni自zi己ji的de股gu票piao资zi
产chan是shi不bu是shi升sheng值zhi了le五wu倍bei?一yi对dui比bi就jiu会hui发fa现xian股gu票piao不bu容rong易yi,这zhe里li我wo们men先xian忽hu略lue掉diao投tou资zi房fang产chan贷dai款kuan和he杠gang杆gan的de因yin素su。
我wo特te别bie在zai意yi投tou资zi界jie里li的de一yi个ge规gui律lv,“乐le极ji生sheng悲bei,物wu极ji必bi反fan”,我wo们men投tou资zi的de思si路lu很hen多duo时shi候hou都dou是shi逆ni向xiang的de,别bie人ren不bu看kan好hao的de时shi候hou我wo们men看kan好hao。
如ru果guo回hui到dao股gu市shi的de投tou资zi里li来lai,什shen么me是shi确que定ding性xing?我wo觉jiao得de最zui大da的de一yi个ge确que定ding性xing就jiu是shi股gu市shi估gu值zhi高gao低di的de变bian化hua,无wu论lun中zhong国guo股gu市shi是shi在zai国guo外wai股gu市shi都dou有you自zi
身shen的de运yun行xing规gui律lv。这zhe个ge规gui律lv就jiu是shi从cong低di估gu到dao高gao估gu,再zai到dao低di估gu,不bu断duan循xun环huan往wang复fu。例li如ru中zhong国guo股gu市shi历li史shi上shang,市shi盈ying率lv从cong15倍bei到dao过guo60倍beiPE,后hou来lai又you降jiang
下xia来lai。国guo外wai呢ne?我wo们men可ke以yi看kan看kan美mei国guo,美mei国guo有you一yi百bai多duo年nian的de股gu市shi历li史shi,也ye是shi不bu断duan波bo动dong,从cong几ji倍beiPE到dao几ji十shi倍bei,后hou续xu再zai降jiang下xia来lai。另ling外wai从cong图tu中zhong可ke
以yi看kan出chu,中zhong国guoA股gu的de估gu值zhi在zai向xiang国guo际ji股gu市shi的de估gu值zhi接jie轨gui,这zhe轮lun形xing势shi实shi际ji已yi经jing在zai接jie近jin,沪hu深shen三san百bai的dePE不bu到dao10倍bei,而er港gang股gu,包bao括kuo美mei国guo估gu值zhi的dePE
,正zheng常chang的de区qu间jian也ye在zai七qi八ba倍bei,八ba九jiu倍bei的de样yang子zi。这zhe是shi一yi个ge很hen重chong要yao的de规gui律lv,投tou资zi最zui终zhong做zuo决jue策ce一yi定ding是shi依yi据ju大da概gai率lv事shi件jian来lai做zuo决jue策ce,而er不bu是shi根gen据ju短duan
期qiCPI涨zhang了le多duo少shao,PMI指zhi数shu多duo少shao多duo少shao,我wo觉jiao得de这zhe一yi点dian意yi义yi都dou没mei有you。
刚gang才cai我wo说shuo了le低di估gu和he高gao估gu的de规gui律lv,我wo自zi己ji的de总zong结jie是shi这zhe样yang的de,为wei什shen么me中zhong国guo股gu市shi会hui有you这zhe样yang的de规gui律lv?包bao括kuo世shi界jie股gu市shi,甚shen至zhi世shi界jie股gu市shi400年nian的de
历li史shi一yi直zhi有you这zhe个ge规gui律lv,这zhe是shi因yin为wei“人ren性xing的de规gui律lv”在zai起qi作zuo用yong,是shi人ren性xing不bu断duan的de从cong贪tan婪lan到dao恐kong惧ju再zai到dao贪tan婪lan,所suo以yi造zao成cheng了le低di估gu到dao高gao估gu,再zai到dao高gao估gu
,这zhe个ge规gui律lv永yong恒heng不bu变bian,只zhi不bu过guo浮fu动dong的de区qu间jian会hui缩suo窄zhai,因yin为wei大da家jia都dou会hui变bian得de更geng加jia成cheng熟shu和he冷leng静jing,变bian得de更geng加jia细xi心xin、市shi场chang变bian得de更geng加jia充chong分fen、更geng加jia透tou明ming
。
下xia面mian这zhe张zhang表biao我wo不bu是shi告gao诉su大da家jia每mei个ge股gu票piao都dou涨zhang了le多duo少shao倍bei,而er是shi说shuo股gu价jia涨zhang了le多duo少shao倍bei,相xiang对dui应ying的de每mei一yi个ge公gong司si的de利li润run接jie近jin于yu涨zhang了le多duo少shao倍bei,这zhe是shi
我wo们men投tou资zi,特te别bie是shi我wo们men投tou资zi好hao企qi业ye最zui大da的de支zhi撑cheng,为wei什shen么me投tou资zi好hao企qi业ye能neng赚zhuan钱qian?就jiu是shi因yin为wei业ye绩ji增zeng长chang的de确que定ding性xing。如ru果guo没mei有you这zhe一yi点dian,所suo有you企qi业ye
都dou一yi样yang,就jiu像xiang中zhong国guoA股gu一yi样yang,上shang一yi轮lun2006、2007年nian时shi所suo有you股gu票piao都dou涨zhang,当dang然ran港gang股gu也ye不bu例li外wai,但dan坐zuo的de是shi过guo山shan车che,上shang去qu之zhi后hou马ma上shang又you下xia来lai,但dan
好hao企qi业ye会hui有you支zhi撑cheng,它ta会hui不bu断duan地di再zai创chuang新xin高gao。
我wo们men可ke以yi看kan港gang股gu,这zhe是shi我wo统tong计ji的de1977年nian到dao1997年nian香xiang港gang上shang市shi公gong司si的de几ji个ge公gong司si,房fang地di产chan和he金jin融rong行xing业ye的de,这zhe四si个ge企qi业ye都dou是shi香xiang港gang的de(长chang江jiang实shi
业ye,新xin鸿hong基ji、横heng生sheng银yin行xing、汇hui丰feng银yin行xing),当dang然ran大da家jia可ke能neng会hui说shuo这zhe是shi特te例li,这zhe可ke能neng是shi特te例li,但dan至zhi少shao我wo们men中zhong国guo的de经jing济ji发fa展zhan规gui律lv可ke能neng更geng加jia接jie近jin香xiang
港gang,特te别bie是shi金jin融rong地di产chan。
为wei什shen么me我wo要yao讲jiang这zhe个ge道dao理li,因yin为wei如ru果guo你ni同tong时shi投tou资zi垃la圾ji企qi业ye和he好hao企qi业ye,股gu票piao都dou涨zhang,你ni会hui觉jiao得de为wei什shen么me我wo要yao买mai好hao企qi业ye?但dan随sui着zhe时shi间jian往wang后hou,你ni
会hui发fa现xian买mai好hao企qi业ye,它ta的de股gu价jia是shi有you支zhi撑cheng的de,不bu会hui让rang你ni被bei套tao很hen深shen,你ni在zai下xia一yi个ge牛niu市shi或huo下xia一yi轮lun反fan弹tan中zhong会hui解jie套tao,这zhe是shi很hen重chong要yao的de支zhi撑cheng。
还huan有you一yi个ge投tou资zi的de确que定ding性xing,或huo者zhe说shuo“大da概gai率lv事shi件jian”,它ta在zai于yu你ni为wei什shen么me要yao投tou股gu票piao而er不bu投tou别bie的de?我wo刚gang才cai跟gen大da家jia提ti到dao了le房fang产chan,我wo们men究jiu竟jing持chi有you
什shen么me样yang的de资zi产chan去qu度du过guo我wo们men的de下xia半ban生sheng和he未wei来lai?其qi实shi里li面mian很hen重chong要yao的de一yi点dian就jiu是shi我wo们men看kan的de规gui律lv性xing的de东dong西xi。这zhe是shi美mei国guo的de数shu据ju,1801年nian的de1美mei元yuan股gu
票piao最zui终zhong涨zhang到dao57万wan将jiang近jin58万wan美mei元yuan,涨zhang了le58万wan倍bei,而er其qi他ta的de资zi产chan,债zhai券quan、黄huang金jin、美mei元yuan没mei有you什shen么me大da的de涨zhang幅fu,特te别bie是shi货huo币bi美mei元yuan是shi在zai贬bian值zhi的de,所suo
以yi我wo们men每mei个ge人ren都dou要yao思si考kao我wo们men究jiu竟jing要yao配pei置zhi什shen么me样yang的de资zi产chan。虽sui然ran大da家jia觉jiao得de这zhe很hen正zheng常chang,因yin为wei股gu票piao就jiu是shi收shou益yi好hao,但dan很hen多duo时shi候hou你ni在zai做zuo投tou资zi决jue策ce的de
时shi候hou会hui忽hu略lue最zui基ji本ben的de常chang识shi。我wo不bu否fou认ren很hen多duo金jin融rong产chan品pin,比bi如ru黄huang金jin,包bao括kuo债zhai券quan,会hui在zai个ge别bie时shi间jian有you不bu错cuo的de收shou益yi,这zhe是shi没mei有you问wen题ti的de,但dan从cong长chang期qi
角jiao度du来lai看kan,股gu票piao一yi定ding是shi战zhan胜sheng其qi它ta资zi产chan的de。下xia面mian这zhe张zhang图tu表biao更geng加jia详xiang细xi地di介jie绍shao了le1975年nian到dao2007年nian股gu票piao的de收shou益yi率lv,包bao括kuo债zhai券quan、房fang产chan,各ge种zhong收shou益yi
率lv的de对dui比bi,虽sui然ran平ping均yun增zeng长chang率lv大da家jia差cha别bie不bu大da,但dan总zong收shou益yi差cha别bie是shi比bi较jiao大da的de。
我wo刚gang才cai讲jiang了le几ji个ge规gui律lv,可ke能neng大da家jia觉jiao得de这zhe很hen简jian单dan,都dou是shi常chang识shi,但dan说shuo实shi话hua,我wo们men这zhe五wu年nian以yi来lai,从cong2007年nian做zuo到dao今jin天tian,总zong收shou益yi做zuo到dao了le4倍bei多duo
,实shi际ji上shang就jiu是shi依yi照zhao这zhe么me简jian单dan的de规gui律lv,大da家jia可ke能neng都dou不bu信xin,为wei什shen么me2007年nian你ni不bu敢gan卖mai,包bao括kuo2008不bu敢gan买mai呢ne?其qi实shi很hen简jian单dan,想xiang得de太tai复fu杂duo了le反fan而er
不bu容rong易yi做zuo决jue策ce,所suo以yi做zuo决jue策ce的de那na一yi刹sha一yi定ding是shi几ji个ge很hen重chong要yao的de点dian来lai支zhi撑cheng你ni为wei什shen么me买mai它ta,我wo自zi己ji是shi这zhe样yang思si考kao的de:一yi个ge企qi业ye你ni觉jiao得de值zhi得de买mai,甚shen
至zhi敢gan重chong仓cang买mai,那na么me你ni只zhi会hui有you一yi个ge理li由you,如ru果guo你ni说shuo了le一yi堆dui理li由you,那na我wo觉jiao得de你ni这zhe个ge问wen题ti可ke能neng想xiang得de并bing不bu清qing楚chu,我wo是shi这zhe么me判pan断duan的de。所suo以yi我wo说shuo,
这zhe几ji个ge规gui律lv是shi我wo们men投tou资zi体ti系xi中zhong,甚shen至zhi是shi做zuo投tou资zi的de人ren非fei常chang应ying该gai掌zhang握wo的de基ji本ben规gui律lv。
刚gang才cai我wo谈tan到dao了le什shen么me叫jiao确que定ding性xing,其qi实shi我wo们men做zuo投tou资zi是shi逆ni向xiang投tou资zi风feng格ge,别bie人ren看kan好hao的de我wo们men不bu看kan好hao,怎zen么me能neng做zuo到dao确que定ding性xing,首shou先xian要yao规gui避bi、确que定ding“
什shen么me是shi不bu确que定ding”,因yin为wei“确que定ding性xing”一yi词ci非fei常chang主zhu观guan,你ni自zi己ji觉jiao得de确que定ding就jiu确que定ding,自zi己ji觉jiao得de不bu确que定ding就jiu不bu确que定ding,应ying该gai是shi这zhe样yang的de,但dan它ta也ye有you相xiang对dui
的de概gai念nian,所suo以yi我wo下xia面mian主zhu要yao是shi跟gen大da家jia分fen享xiang一yi下xia我wo这zhe几ji年nian的de投tou资zi案an例li,包bao括kuo我wo投tou资zi的de和he没mei投tou资zi的de,怎zen么me去qu验yan证zheng它ta的de确que定ding性xing。
说shuo到dao大da家jia最zui近jin非fei常chang关guan注zhu的de白bai酒jiu行xing业ye,其qi实shi我wo们men2007年nian就jiu开kai始shi关guan注zhu,也ye是shi比bi较jiao看kan好hao,但dan到dao2012年nian年nian初chu的de时shi候hou我wo们men觉jiao得de这zhe个ge行xing业ye非fei常chang狂kuang
热re。为wei什shen么me这zhe么me说shuo?如ru果guo是shi在zai实shi业ye投tou资zi,甚shen至zhi做zuo过guo企qi业ye的de话hua你ni会hui发fa现xian,企qi业ye的de增zeng长chang其qi实shi是shi很hen难nan的de。举ju个ge例li子zi,像xiang美mei国guo微wei软ruan这zhe样yang一yi家jia非fei
常chang牛niu的de公gong司si,它ta从cong八ba几ji年nian到dao九jiu几ji年nian,十shi几ji年nian的de增zeng长chang率lv只zhi有you多duo少shao,我wo可ke以yi告gao诉su你ni们menzhensshuj,不bu到dao50%。这zhe么me牛niu的de公gong司si,让rang比bi尔er.盖gai茨ci在zai
短duan短duan二er三san十shi年nian间jian成cheng为wei世shi界jie首shou富fu,它ta的de增zeng长chang率lv也ye就jiu是shi这zhe样yang,你ni觉jiao得de白bai酒jiu行xing业ye已yi经jing这zhe么me高gao的de增zeng长chang了le还huan有you机ji会hui继ji续xu下xia去qu吗ma?如ru果guo06、07年nian你ni
去qu体ti育yu用yong品pin行xing业ye,你ni就jiu会hui发fa现xian体ti育yu用yong品pin行xing业ye出chu现xian的de问wen题ti和he现xian在zai的de白bai酒jiu行xing业ye非fei常chang相xiang似si,包bao括kuo很hen多duo二er线xian、三san线xian的de品pin牌pai争zheng相xiang上shang市shi,你ni会hui发fa现xian
他ta们men开kai店dian数shu量liang非fei常chang快kuai,而er且qie空kong间jian非fei常chang大da,至zhi少shao是shi五wu倍bei十shi倍bei的de收shou入ru增zeng长chang,但dan为wei什shen么me到dao最zui近jin几ji年nian你ni发fa现xian体ti育yu用yong品pin行xing业ye简jian直zhi惨can不bu忍ren睹du?因yin为wei
当dang时shi我wo去qu我wo老lao家jia最zui小xiao的de一yi个ge县xian城cheng,吉ji林lin一yi个ge很hen边bian境jing的de城cheng市shi,很hen小xiao的de县xian城cheng,我wo看kan很hen多duo的de市shi民min,很hen普pu通tong的de人ren,都dou穿chuan着zhe体ti育yu用yong品pin的de牌pai子zi在zai大da
街jie上shang逛guang,你ni觉jiao得de这zhe意yi味wei着zhe什shen么me?这zhe意yi味wei着zhe大da家jia都dou已yi经jing消xiao费fei了le体ti育yu用yong品pin服fu装zhuang,我wo这zhe个ge观guan点dian和he我wo们men公gong司si当dang时shi的de研yan究jiu员yuan有you分fen歧qi,我wo说shuo就jiu是shi主zhu
要yao因yin为wei这zhe一yi点dian我wo不bu投tou它ta。想xiang一yi想xiang,很hen简jian单dan,如ru果guo大da家jia都dou穿chuan体ti育yu用yong品pin的de衣yi服fu,还huan有you谁shui再zai追zhui加jia购gou买mai?如ru果guo一yi个ge东dong西xi都dou消xiao费fei了le一yi轮lun,你ni想xiang再zai
让rang它ta消xiao费fei,甚shen至zhi于yu再zai消xiao费fei一yi遍bian,这zhe种zhong不bu确que定ding性xing就jiu加jia大da了le,所suo以yi我wo们men当dang时shi觉jiao得de不bu确que定ding性xing大da,不bu投tou它ta,紧jin接jie着zhe2009年nian没mei有you问wen题ti,还huan是shi高gao增zeng
长chang,但dan是shi2010年nian就jiu下xia来lai了le。
及ji时shi技ji术shu分fen析xi,现xian价jia建jian议yi。专zhuan业ye,解jie各ge种zhong套tao锁suo。专zhuan业ye布bu局ju,短duan线xian,中zhong线xian,长chang线xian。我wo们men会hui根gen据ju你ni的de资zi金jin和he风feng险xian承cheng受shou能neng力li来lai制zhi定ding一yi套tao属shu于yu
你ni自zi己ji的de方fang案an! 欢huan迎ying加jia入ru期qi货huo高gao级ji实shi盘pan喊han单dan群qun:*********** 验yan证zheng码ma:jx305 想xiang了le解jie更geng多duo行xing情qing走zou势shi请qing咨zi询xun/qq:*********** 验yan证zheng
码ma:jx305【原文】