本文为【1971年至今 人类在这45年里停止进步了吗?】的汉字拼音对照版显示拼音
文wen/Michael Hanlon 译yi/面mian包bao啊a面mian包bao (微wei信xin公gong众zhong号hao:Lens杂duo志zhi)
我wo们men生sheng活huo在zai一yi个ge技ji术shu、医yi疗liao、科ke学xue和he社she会hui都dou不bu断duan进jin步bu的de黄huang金jin时shi代dai。瞧qiao瞧qiao我wo们men的de电dian脑nao!我wo们men的de手shou机ji!二er十shi年nian前qian,互hu联lian网wang只zhi是shi适shi合he一yi群qun极ji客ke们men把ba玩wan的de嘎ga吱zhi作zuo响xiang的de老lao朽xiu机ji器qi。如ru今jin,我wo们men不bu敢gan想xiang象xiang没mei有you网wang络luo的de生sheng活huo会hui是shi怎zen样yang。我wo们men也ye即ji将jiang迎ying来lai一yi个ge个ge医yi学xue上shang的de突tu破po,而er这zhe些xie突tu破po就jiu算suan在zai仅jin仅jin半ban个ge世shi纪ji前qian,都dou还huan像xiang魔mo术shu一yi样yang:克ke隆long器qi官guan,修xiu复fuDNA的de干gan细xi胞bao疗liao法fa。甚shen至zhi是shi现xian在zai,在zai一yi些xie富fu有you国guo家jia,人ren们men的de寿shou命ming以yi每mei天tian5小xiao时shi的de速su度du延yan长chang。每mei天tian5小xiao时shi!显xian然ran,长chang生sheng不bu老lao什shen么me的de,已yi经jing不bu远yuan了le。
普pu遍bian认ren为wei,21世shi纪ji是shi一yi个ge一yi切qie都dou在zai飞fei速su发fa展zhan的de时shi期qi。这zhe种zhong观guan点dian如ru此ci主zhu流liu,以yi至zhi于yu谁shui要yao是shi敢gan质zhi疑yi它ta,就jiu似si乎hu显xian得de简jian单dan粗cu暴bao。几ji乎hu每mei个ge星xing期qi,我wo们men都dou会hui读du到dao有you关guan癌ai症zheng患huan者zhe看kan到dao“新xin希xi望wang”的de报bao道dao,或huo是shi实shi验yan室shi里li的de新xin进jin展zhan可ke能neng带dai来lai新xin的de疗liao法fa,亦yi或huo是shi我wo们men进jin入ru了le空kong间jian旅lv行xing的de新xin时shi代dai,超chao音yin速su喷pen气qi式shi飞fei机ji能neng在zai几ji小xiao时shi内nei绕rao地di球qiu飞fei行xing一yi周zhou。但dan只zhi要yao我wo们men稍shao微wei停ting下xia来lai想xiang一yi想xiang,就jiu会hui发fa现xian这zhe种zhong对dui创chuang新xin规gui模mo空kong前qian进jin步bu的de想xiang象xiang不bu可ke能neng完wan全quan合he理li,很hen多duo扣kou人ren心xin弦xian的de关guan于yu人ren类lei进jin步bu的de报bao道dao实shi际ji上shang只zhi是shi大da肆si宣xuan扬yang、推tui测ce——甚shen至zhi是shi空kong想xiang。
然ran而er,在zai曾zeng经jing的de某mou个ge年nian代dai,推tui测ce可ke以yi变bian成cheng现xian实shi。但dan这zhe种zhong情qing况kuang在zai40多duo年nian前qian就jiu戛jia然ran而er止zhi了le。从cong那na以yi后hou所suo发fa生sheng的de,只zhi不bu过guo是shi在zai原yuan有you进jin步bu的de基ji础chu上shang叠die加jia式shi的de改gai善shan。那na个ge真zhen正zheng属shu于yu创chuang新xin的de年nian代dai——我wo称cheng之zhi为wei“黄huang金jin25年nian”——大da约yue是shi从cong1945年nian到dao1971年nian。在zai这zhe一yi时shi期qi,几ji乎hu所suo有you定ding义yi了le现xian代dai世shi界jie的de东dong西xi,要yao么me已yi经jing形xing成cheng,要yao么me正zheng在zai萌meng芽ya。避bi孕yun药yao,电dian子zi设she备bei,电dian脑nao和he互hu联lian网wang的de诞dan生sheng,核gai电dian,电dian视shi机ji,抗kang生sheng素su,太tai空kong旅lv行xing,民min权quan。
当dang然ran还huan有you更geng多duo。女nv权quan主zhu义yi,青qing少shao年nian问wen题ti,农nong业ye的de“绿lv色se革ge命ming”,非fei殖zhi民min化hua,流liu行xing音yin乐le,大da众zhong航hang空kong,同tong性xing恋lian权quan利li运yun动dong的de兴xing起qi,便bian宜yi而er又you安an全quan可ke靠kao的de汽qi车che,高gao速su铁tie路lu。我wo们men将jiang人ren类lei送song上shang了le月yue球qiu,向xiang火huo星xing发fa射she了le探tan测ce器qi,击ji败bai了le天tian花hua,发fa现xian了le生sheng命ming的de双shuang螺luo旋xuan基ji因yin。“黄huang金jin25年nian”是shi在zai仅jin仅jin一yi代dai人ren的de时shi间jian内nei出chu现xian的de一yi个ge特te殊shu时shi期qi,创chuang新xin发fa展zhan的de速su度du之zhi惊jing人ren,就jiu像xiang是shi用yong了le赛sai车che燃ran油you和he双shuang锂li晶jing体ti混hun合he燃ran料liao的de引yin擎qing。
如ru今jin,对dui进jin步bu的de定ding义yi几ji乎hu完wan全quan依yi赖lai于yu信xin息xi技ji术shu上shang由you消xiao费fei驱qu动dong的de、通tong常chang平ping庸yong乏fa味wei的de一yi些xie改gai善shan。在zai美mei国guo经jing济ji学xue家jia泰tai勒le·科ke文wen的de《大da停ting滞zhi》(The Great Stagnation,2011)中zhong,他ta论lun证zheng道dao,至zhi少shao在zai美mei国guo,技ji术shu发fa展zhan已yi经jing进jin入ru稳wen定ding期qi。的de确que,今jin天tian我wo们men的de手shou机ji如ru此ci强qiang大da,但dan这zhe跟gen消xiao灭mie天tian花hua或huo是shi8小xiao时shi内nei飞fei越yue大da西xi洋yang,是shi无wu法fa相xiang提ti并bing论lun的de。就jiu如ru美mei国guo技ji术shu学xue家jia彼bi得de·泰tai尔er说shuo过guo的de,“曾zeng经jing我wo们men想xiang要yao能neng飞fei的de汽qi车che,今jin天tian我wo们men得de到dao的de只zhi是shi能neng输shu入ru140个ge字zi母mu的de推tui特te”。
而er经jing济ji学xue家jia会hui从cong财cai富fu增zeng长chang的de角jiao度du去qu描miao述shu那na个ge了le不bu起qi的de时shi期qi。二er战zhan结jie束shu后hou,迎ying来lai了le25年nian左zuo右you的de经jing济ji繁fan荣rong,欧ou美mei的de人ren均yunGDP飙biao升sheng。各ge大da行xing业ye巨ju头tou从cong日ri本ben的de废fei墟xu中zhong崛jue起qi。德de国guo经jing历li了le自zi己ji的de经jing济ji奇qi迹ji。甚shen至zhi连lian共gong产chan主zhu义yi世shi界jie也ye富fu裕yu起qi来lai。这zhe种zhong增zeng长chang要yao归gui功gong于yu战zhan后hou政zheng府fu的de大da规gui模mo刺ci激ji政zheng策ce,以yi及ji低di油you价jia、人ren口kou增zeng长chang和he“冷leng战zhan”期qi间jian高gao昂ang军jun费fei等deng各ge种zhong因yin素su的de美mei妙miao结jie合he。
但dan与yu此ci同tong时shi,还huan有you人ren类lei聪cong明ming才cai智zhi的de井jing喷pen和he社she会hui的de巨ju大da变bian迁qian。对dui这zhe一yi点dian的de评ping论lun较jiao少shao,可ke能neng因yin为wei太tai显xian而er易yi见jian了le,或huo可ke能neng被bei简jian单dan看kan作zuo是shi经jing济ji发fa展zhan的de一yi个ge必bi然ran结jie果guo。我wo们men目mu睹du了le最zui重chong要yao的de科ke技ji发fa展zhan:如ru果guo你ni是shi一yi名ming生sheng物wu学xue家jia、物wu理li学xue家jia或huo材cai料liao科ke学xue家jia,再zai也ye不bu会hui有you比bi在zai那na个ge时shi代dai工gong作zuo更geng幸xing福fu的de事shi了le。但dan我wo们men也ye目mu睹du了le社she会hui态tai度du的de一yi些xie转zhuan变bian,任ren何he一yi点dian点dian改gai变bian都dou影ying响xiang深shen远yuan。即ji便bian在zai1945年nian前qian最zui开kai化hua的de社she会hui时shi期qi,对dui于yu种zhong族zu、性xing、女nv权quan的de态tai度du在zai我wo们men今jin天tian看kan来lai也ye是shi十shi分fen老lao朽xiu的de了le。到dao了le1971年nian,这zhe些xie过guo时shi的de偏pian见jian已yi经jing处chu于yu下xia风feng。简jian单dan来lai说shuo,世shi界jie已yi经jing变bian了le。
但dan是shi我wo们men今jin天tian的de这zhe些xie真zhen的de算suan是shi进jin步bu吗ma?那na就jiu让rang我wo们men来lai看kan看kan吧ba。抬tai头tou看kan看kan天tian空kong,你ni看kan到dao的de飞fei机ji基ji本ben上shang是shi20世shi纪ji60年nian代dai飞fei机ji的de更geng新xin版ban——只zhi不bu过guo比bi洛luo克ke希xi德de三san星xing客ke机ji噪zao音yin更geng低di,所suo用yong航hang空kong电dian子zi设she备bei更geng好hao。1971年nian,一yi架jia普pu通tong班ban机ji从cong伦lun敦dun飞fei往wang纽niu约yue需xu要yao8小xiao时shi,今jin天tian依yi然ran需xu要yao这zhe么me久jiu。而er在zai1971年nian,曾zeng经jing有you趟tang航hang班ban能neng在zai3小xiao时shi内nei飞fei完wan这zhe条tiao航hang线xian;如ru今jin,协xie和he式shi飞fei机ji已yi退tui役yi。我wo们men的de汽qi车che也ye比bi1971年nian时shi变bian得de更geng快kuai、更geng安an全quan、耗hao油you更geng少shao,但dan并bing没mei有you什shen么me范fan式shi上shang的de变bian革ge。
的de确que,我wo们men也ye活huo得de更geng长chang了le,但dan令ling人ren失shi望wang的de是shi,这zhe并bing非fei缘yuan于yu任ren何he近jin期qi的de突tu破po。自zi1970年nian起qi,美mei国guo联lian邦bang政zheng府fu投tou入ru了le一yi千qian多duo亿yi美mei元yuan用yong于yu尼ni克ke松song总zong统tong所suo谓wei的de“抗kang癌ai战zhan”。而er全quan球qiu范fan围wei的de投tou入ru就jiu更geng多duo了le,大da多duo数shu富fu有you国guo家jia因yin拥yong有you资zi金jin充chong裕yu的de癌ai症zheng研yan究jiu机ji构gou而er感gan到dao自zi豪hao。尽jin管guan投tou入ru了le这zhe么me多duo亿yi,这zhe场chang战zhan争zheng最zui终zhong却que沦lun为wei一yi次ci彻che底di的de失shi败bai。根gen据ju美mei国guo国guo家jia卫wei生sheng统tong计ji中zhong心xin的de数shu据ju,在zai1950-2005年nian期qi间jian,美mei国guo各ge种zhong癌ai症zheng死si亡wang率lv仅jin下xia降jiang了le5%。即ji便bian你ni剔ti除chu一yi些xie令ling人ren混hun淆xiao的de变bian量liang,如ru年nian龄ling(更geng多duo人ren活huo得de更geng久jiu,意yi味wei着zhe他ta们men在zai有you生sheng之zhi年nian总zong会hui有you机ji会hui患huan癌ai症zheng的de)、更geng好hao的de诊zhen断duan,但dan赤chi裸luo裸luo的de现xian实shi就jiu是shi,对dui于yu大da多duo数shu癌ai症zheng,你ni在zai2014年nian患huan癌ai症zheng的de几ji率lv相xiang比bi于yu1974年nian而er言yan,并bing没mei有you降jiang低di多duo少shao。而er且qie大da多duo数shu时shi候hou,你ni所suo获huo得de的de治zhi疗liao也ye跟gen原yuan来lai差cha不bu多duo。
在zai过guo去qu20年nian,作zuo为wei一yi名ming科ke学xue作zuo家jia,我wo写xie过guo许xu多duo了le不bu起qi的de医yi学xue进jin步bu,如ru基ji因yin疗liao法fa、克ke隆long器qi官guan移yi植zhi、干gan细xi胞bao疗liao法fa、寿shou命ming延yan长chang技ji术shu,以yi及ji基ji因yin组zu学xue和he个ge体ti化hua治zhi疗liao所suo承cheng诺nuo的de一yi些xie附fu加jia成cheng果guo。以yi上shang任ren何he一yi种zhong治zhi疗liao都dou仍reng未wei成cheng为wei常chang规gui性xing手shou段duan。瘫tan痪huan病bing人ren仍reng无wu法fa走zou路lu,盲mang人ren仍reng未wei重chong见jian光guang明ming。人ren类lei基ji因yin组zu在zai将jiang近jin15年nian前qian就jiu已yi被bei破po解jie(这zhe是shi“黄huang金jin25年nian”之zhi后hou的de胜sheng利li之zhi一yi),而er如ru今jin我wo们men仍reng然ran在zai等deng待dai那na些xie在zai当dang时shi声sheng称cheng“十shi年nian之zhi后hou”就jiu能neng看kan见jian的de好hao处chu。我wo们men仍reng然ran不bu知zhi道dao如ru何he治zhi疗liao慢man性xing上shang瘾yin或huo痴chi呆dai症zheng。根gen据ju我wo采cai访fang的de一yi位wei杰jie出chu的de英ying国guo精jing神shen病bing学xue家jia所suo说shuo,精jing神shen病bing药yao物wu的de近jin代dai史shi就jiu是shi“一yi部bu安an慰wei剂ji不bu断duan改gai进jin的de历li史shi”。而er且qie有you关guan人ren类lei寿shou命ming的de一yi些xie最zui新xin进jin展zhan,也ye只zhi不bu过guo是shi让rang人ren们men戒jie烟yan、健jian康kang饮yin食shi、喝he降jiang压ya药yao等deng这zhe类lei权quan宜yi之zhi计ji。
自zi“黄huang金jin25年nian”之zhi后hou就jiu再zai没mei出chu现xian过guo新xin的de“绿lv色se革ge命ming”。我wo们men仍reng然ran开kai的de是shi钢gang制zhi汽qi车che,烧shao的de是shi汽qi油you,甚shen至zhi更geng糟zao糕gao——柴chai油you。自zi“黄huang金jin25年nian”中zhong在zai塑su料liao、半ban导dao体ti、新xin合he金jin和he合he成cheng材cai料liao等deng方fang面mian的de进jin步bu后hou,就jiu再zai没mei有you新xin的de材cai料liao革ge命ming。在zai20世shi纪ji早zao中zhong期qi令ling人ren应ying接jie不bu暇xia的de突tu破po后hou,物wu理li学xue似si乎hu就jiu停ting滞zhi不bu前qian(希xi格ge斯si粒li子zi除chu外wai)。弦xian理li论lun显xian然ran是shi让rang爱ai因yin斯si坦tan和he量liang子zi世shi界jie和he解jie的de最zui大da希xi望wang,但dan是shi目mu前qian为wei止zhi,甚shen至zhi没mei有you人ren知zhi道dao这zhe一yi理li论lun是shi否fou能neng被bei验yan证zheng。而er且qie距ju人ren类lei上shang一yi次ci登deng月yue已yi经jing有you42年nian了le。
【原文】