The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History (即将到来的大萧条)
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品牌: Harry S. Dent
基本信息·出版社：Free Press
·页码：400 页
·出版日期：2009年
·ISBN：1416588981
·条形码：9781416588986
·装帧：平装
·正文语种：英语
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内容简介The first and last economic depression that you will experience in your lifetime is just ahead. The year 2009 will be the beginning of the next long-term winter season and the initial end of prosperity in almost every market, ushering in a downturn like most of us have not experienced before. Are you aware that we have seen long-term peaks in our stock market and economy very close to every 40 years due to generational spending trends: as in 1929, 1968, and next around 2009? Are you aware that oil and commodity prices have peaked nearly every 30 years, as in 1920, 1951, 1980 -- and next likely around late 2009 to mid-2010? The three massive bubbles that have been booming for the last few decades -- stocks, real estate, and commodities -- have all reached their peak and are deflating simultaneously.Bestselling author and renowned economic forecaster Harry S. Dent, Jr., has observed these trends for decades. As he first demonstrated in his bestsellingThe Great Boom Ahead, he has developed analytical techniques that allow him to predict the impact they will have.The Great Depression Aheadexplains "The Perfect Storm" as peak oil prices collide with peaking generational spending trends by 2010, leading to a more severe downtrend for the global economy and individual investors alike.He predicts the following:• The economy appears to recover from the subprime crisis and minor recession by mid-2009 -- "the calm before the real storm."• Stock prices start to crash again between mid- and late 2009 into late 2010, and likely finally bottom around mid-2012 -- between Dow 3,800 and 7,200.• The economy enters a deeper depression between mid-2010 and early 2011, likely extending off and on into late 2012 or mid-2013.• Asian markets may bottom by late 2010, along with health care, and be the first great buy opportunities in stocks.• Gold and precious metals will appear to be a hedge at first, but will ultimately collapse as well after mid- to late 2010.• A first major stock rally, likely between mid-2012 and mid-2017, will be followed by a final setdback around late 2019/early 2020.• The next broad-based global bull market will be from 2020-2023 into 2035-2036.Conventional investment wisdom will no longer apply, and investors on every level -- from billion-dollar firms to the individual trader -- must drastically reevaluate their policies in order to survive. But despite the dire news and dark predictions, there are real opportunities to come from the greatest fire sale on financial assets since the early 1930s. Dent outlines the critical issues that will face our government and other major institutions, offering long- and short-term tactics for weathering the storm. He offers recommendations that will allow families, businesses, investors, and individuals to manage their assets correctly and come out on top. With the right knowledge and preparation, you can take advantage of new wealth opportunities rather than get caught in a downward spiral. Your life is about to change for reasons outside of your control. You can't change the direction of the winds, but you can reset your sails!
作者简介Harry S. Dent, Jr.,is President of the H. S. Dent Foundation, whose mission is "Helping People Understand Change." In his first book,The Great Boom Ahead,published in 1992, he stood virtually alone in forecasting the unanticipated boom of the 1990s. He has since authored two bestselling books,The Roaring 2000sandThe Roaring 2000s Investor.A Harvard MBA, Fortune 100 consultant, new venture founder and investor, and noted speaker, Dent offers a refreshingly positive view of the future with practical applications at all levels.
编辑推荐From Publishers Weekly
Dent, former strategic consultant at Bain & Company, outlines the features of what he predicts will be the next Great Depression. The author argues that demographic trends were the greatest drivers of our economy, along with radical new technologies, working together to follow a four-stage life cycle of innovation, growth, shakeout, and maturity. While Dent's doomsday predictions are depressing, his theories are persuasive and elaborated in meticulous descriptions of historic economic trends and cycles. The author's candor is refreshing, especially when he discusses how equity investments experience a wide variety of returns, including substantial losses or extraordinary gains—and that the financial press has failed to remind the public of this fact. The book offers welcome portfolio allocation strategies during an economic crisis, as well as the bad news that the worst of the housing downturn will occur between 2010 and 2013. Along with domestic forecasts, Dent addresses terrorism's economic roots and the growth of megacities in South and East Asia with characteristic thoroughness.(Jan.)
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FromBooklist
Dent, author and consultant, predicts the economy is moving toward a major depression, with the deflation of bubbles in stocks, real estate, and commodities between mid- to late 2009 and mid- to late 2012, and it could last for a decade or more. Rather than offering only a gloomy outlook, Dent presents a road map for the difficult times ahead, suggesting cash and money-market investments initially and then highest quality U.S. Treasury, municipal, and corporate bonds and that same quality of bonds in stable Asian and European economies. When assets eventually fall in value, there will be unprecedented buying opportunities for those who are “lean and mean.” Theories and forecasts abound in the financial turmoil facing the U.S. and global markets in late 2008, and everyone may not agree with Dent. However, he makes a compelling case for his predictions and this is an excellent book to challenge a broad range of library patrons. --Mary Whaley
Review
"While being one of the most bullish and accurate forecasters for 20 years, Dent has always been warning that this great boom would end around 2008-2009. He now sees a bigger crash ahead and a deflationary environment that could ravage your portfolio. His warnings and predictions are well worth reading and taking seriously." -- David Bach, #1New York Timesbestselling author ofStart Late, Finish Rich and The Automatic Millionaire
"While many talk of change these days, the real question lies in assessing in what direction things will change. Harry Dent does a masterful job using demographics and other key cycles to lay out where and when changes will come that will have sweeping ramifications for our pocketbooks, our way of life, and our nation. I cannot more highly recommend this book." -- Mark Sanford, governor of South Carolina
"Economists cannot forecast the economy very well, and most would admit it if their jobs didn't depend on the fiction that they can. So most economists become closet extrapolators, with some minor tweaking for visible pending developments and policy changes. Even I can see to the next corner pretty well, but I can't see around the corner.There is one exception, however. Demographics! Demography, as they say, is destiny. The reason is that you can see the future based on the facts of the present and demonstrated behavior. You can see the pig, or the pigs, going through the python.Harry Dent is the reigning expert in applying sophisticated demographic analysis to economic forecasting. His past record of getting it right speaks for itself. I hope he's wrong this time. I hope we don't have a great depression by 2010. But given his track record, I won't be betting against him." -- Robert D. McTeer, Distinguished Fellow, National Center for Policy Analysis, and former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
