Super Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit from It
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品牌: Barry RitholtzJeffrey A. Hirsch
基本信息出版社:JOHN WILEY & SONS INC (2012年4月3日)平装:196页正文语种:英语ISBN:1118157192条形码:9781118157190ASIN:1118157192商品描述内容简介“As someone who views the investment glass half empty, I would normally treat a forecasted price targetfor the Dow Jones Industrial of 38,820 as hyperbolic and outlandish. That is, unless the forecaster is Jeff Hirsch! Jeff is ‘bred in the purple’ and has royalty in his investment blood as his legendary dad, YaleHirsch, was the dean of all technical analysts (and was the first of his kind to accurately predict theroaring Bull Market of 1974-1990).More importantly, Jeff's rationale for another super boom is well articulated in hisown unique set offacts, figures anddissection of history. To every serious investor I say, Read Super Boom or Perish!”—Douglas A. Kass, President, Seabreeze Partners Management Inc.“Jeff Hirsch delivers a 500% effort in Super Boom. Unless you're closed minded or comatose there is a lot, lot more here than any investment reader can normally hope for. The visuals and data alone are worth many times the price.”—Ken Fisher, Founder and CEO, Fisher Investments, Forbes "Portfolio Strategy" Columnist, 5-time New York Times bestselling author“Super Boom reminds the reader of the power of compounding. DJIA 38,820 by 2025 might sound like an outrageous level, but the implied sub-9% compound annual growth rate (following a decade of decline) makes the target appear more attainable. Within these pages, Jeff demonstrates that he has learned a lot from his father and has inherited the reputation as a renowned and respected market historian.”—Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist, Standard & Poor's Equity Research “As a kid I taught Jeff how to catch big rainbow trout in Montana. In Super Boom, he's returned the favor by showing us how to catch a monster stock market move. A must-read book.”—Larry Williams, trader
Q&A with Author Jeffrey Hirsch
Author Jeffrey Hirsch
How will I know when the next Super Boom has begun?
The precise date is not known, however there are several signs to watch for: a quick rise in inflation followed by a moderation in inflation, the end of the war in Afghanistan and the presence of U.S. combat troops on the ground overseas, a new paradigm shifting technology is gaining in popularity, and commodities begin to cool.
What happens between now and 2017 or when the boom begins?
I expect the market (Dow) to trade in a range of 7,000 to 14,000, suffering a bear market or two or three. This will provide investors ample opportunity to accumulate shares at low valuations, putting their portfolios in position for massive profits from 2017 to 2025 and beyond.
Is this pattern a new discovery?
No. Yale Hirsch first observed the pattern in the 1970’s. It enabled him to make his bull’s-eye forecast in 1976 for the last boom.
How confident are you that a Super Boom is coming?
Quite. Although the exact date when the next Boom begins may not fall in 2017, based upon the previous three Booms, it is likely to begin sometime around that year.
Is now the right time to be buying stocks ahead of the coming Super Boom?
The best time to buy would be when the DJIA is below 10,000 or an official bear market has been declared by the media.
I have read other books making similar grandiose bullish claims. Why is yours any different?
Unlike previous forecasts, mine is based upon three previous occurrences. There is no new modeling or valuation theory that needs to be explained or understood. My forecast is based upon the effects of war, inflation and technological innovation on stock markets. All of this is happening now and it has happened before.
So a stock Super Boom is coming. Should I dump all other asset classes and put everything into the stock market?
No, you should not dump everything and move entirely to stocks. Maintain a diversified approach to long-term investing. Lighten up on under performing assets and increase exposure to stocks.
Numerous structural problems exist at present. (Soaring debt, tightening regulation, surging energy prices, etc.) Has this been taken into consideration by your forecast?
We are aware that the economy is more mature that in the past and that we can expect revolts, revolutions, environmental problems, monetary crises, scandals, droughts, more inflation, a few recessions and bear markets, not to mention a “plague” or two along the way. However, during the three previous 500 percent moves—or for that matter, the last 5,000 or more years--people always were afraid of something or other in the future. Somehow, we do seem to survive and overcome adversity.
