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罗luo易yi彬bin:川chuan普pu嘴zui炮pao搅jiao动dong市shi场chang风feng云yun 黄huang金jin回hui落luo筑zhu底di中zhong线xian涨zhang势shi昨zuo天tian(10.11)星xing期qi四si现xian货huo黄huang金jin绝jue地di反fan弹tan大da涨zhang35美mei金jin,主zhu要yao得de益yi于yu美mei元yuan和he川chuan普pu言yan论lun的de支zhi撑cheng, 本ben周zhou周zhou一yi金jin价jia大da跌die20多duo美mei金jin后hou,金jin价jia从cong周zhou二er开kai始shi震zhen荡dang反fan弹tan,高gao低di位wei不bu断duan上shang移yi,昨zuo晚wan更geng是shi大da涨zhang35美mei金jin,金jin价jia强qiang势shi突tu破po1200刷shua新xin二er个ge多duo月yue高gao点dian至zhi1226附fu近jin,而er且qie在zai上shang涨zhang的de过guo程cheng中zhong回hui落luo幅fu度du有you限xian,之zhi前qian说shuo的de金jin价jia在zai加jia息xi之zhi后hou会hui有you一yi波bo中zhong长chang线xian涨zhang幅fu,目mu前qian还huan是shi不bu能neng非fei常chang肯ken定ding,要yao等deng本ben周zhou收shou盘pan和he下xia周zhou开kai盘pan之zhi后hou才cai能neng看kan出chu端duan倪ni。今jin天tian(10.12)周zhou五wu金jin价jia小xiao幅fu回hui落luo,今jin早zao开kai盘pan在zai1224附fu近jin,开kai盘pan之zhi后hou金jin价jia震zhen荡dang回hui落luo,下xia方fang最zui低di试shi探tan1215附fu近jin,到dao目mu前qian位wei子zi金jin价jia在zai1215-1220一yi线xian震zhen荡dang徘pai徊huai,今jin天tian很hen有you可ke能neng会hui出chu现xian黑hei色se星xing期qi五wu,所suo以yi观guan望wang为wei主zhu,操cao作zuo上shang回hui落luo做zuo多duo为wei主zhu,下xia方fang关guan注zhu1215-10一yi线xian支zhi撑cheng,上shang方fang关guan注zhu1230-33一yi线xian前qian期qi高gao点dian阻zu力li,如ru果guo今jin晚wan不bu破po1210或huo者zhe是shi再zai次ci站zhan稳wen1220,下xia周zhou中zhong线xian多duo单dan有you可ke以yi开kai始shi布bu局ju进jin场chang了le,具ju体ti如ru果guo布bu局ju操cao作zuo关guan注zhu笔bi者zhe罗luo易yi彬bin本ben人ren。下xia面mian会hui对dui近jin期qi的de消xiao息xi讲jiang话hua进jin行xing详xiang细xi的de讲jiang解jie分fen析xi,大da家jia留liu意yi关guan注zhu下xia。
周zhou四si(10月yue11日ri)美mei市shi盘pan中zhong,最zui新xin出chu炉lu的de美mei国guoCPI数shu据ju意yi外wai不bu及ji预yu期qi。据ju劳lao工gong部bu最zui新xin的de报bao告gao显xian示shi,美mei国guo9月yueCPI月yue率lv上shang涨zhang0.1%,不bu及ji预yu期qi和he前qian值zhi;同tong比bi上shang涨zhang2.3%,为wei2月yue以yi来lai最zui低di水shui平ping,不bu及ji8月yue的de2.7%,也ye低di于yu预yu期qi的de2.4%。核gai心xinCPI也ye同tong样yang逊xun于yu预yu期qi,为wei0.1%,预yu期qi0.2%;年nian率lv增zeng长chang2.2%,也ye低di于yu预yu期qi的de2.3%。分fen析xi人ren士shi指zhi出chu,受shou租zu金jin成cheng本ben增zeng速su放fang缓huan和he能neng源yuan价jia格ge下xia跌die的de影ying响xiang,潜qian在zai的de通tong胀zhang压ya力li似si乎hu略lue微wei降jiang温wen。不bu过guo,由you于yu数shu据ju仅jin略lue低di于yu分fen析xi师shi预yu期qi,通tong胀zhang报bao告gao可ke能neng无wu法fa改gai变bian美mei联lian储chu将jiang在zai12月yue政zheng策ce会hui议yi上shang加jia息xi的de预yu期qi,目mu前qian为wei止zhi美mei国guo央yang行xing今jin年nian已yi加jia息xi三san次ci。美mei联lian储chu追zhui踪zong的de通tong胀zhang指zhi标biao是shi核gai心xinPCE物wu价jia指zhi数shu年nian率lv,该gai数shu据ju8月yue份fen录lu得de2%,连lian续xu第di四si个ge月yue符fu合he美mei联lian储chu目mu标biao。Zerohedge撰zhuan文wen称cheng,美mei国guo核gai心xinCPI数shu据ju不bu及ji预yu期qi是shi受shou二er手shou车che市shi场chang拖tuo累lei。美mei国guo9月yue二er手shou车che价jia格ge出chu现xian暴bao跌die,跌die幅fu创chuang15年nian来lai最zui大da。如ru果guo除chu去qu二er手shou车che市shi场chang的de一yi场chang下xia跌die,CPI数shu据ju月yue率lv及ji年nian率lv都dou将jiang符fu合he预yu期qi。与yu此ci同tong时shi公gong布bu的de美mei国guo初chu请qing数shu据ju也ye不bu及ji预yu期qi。美mei国guo至zhi10月yue6日ri当dang周zhou初chu请qing失shi业ye金jin人ren数shu为wei21.4万wan,前qian值zhi20.6万wan,预yu期qi20.7万wan。
周zhou四si(10月yue11日ri)美mei国guo股gu市shi暴bao跌die,跌die超chao600点dian,日ri内nei跌die幅fu2.5%,两liang日ri跌die幅fu达da5.3%,为wei二er月yue以yi来lai最zui大da;标biao普pu收shou盘pan跌die逾yu2%,创chuang7月yue以yi来lai新xin低di。美mei国guo股gu市shi的de下xia跌die也ye导dao致zhi了le亚ya太tai市shi场chang和he欧ou洲zhou市shi场chang的de惨can跌die,全quan球qiu恐kong慌huang指zhi数shu报bao表biao,一yi度du上shang升sheng至zhi24上shang方fang。而er特te将jiang美mei股gu的de暴bao跌die“甩shuai锅guo”美mei联lian储chu,日ri内nei两liang次ci向xiang其qi“开kai炮pao”。特te宣xuan称cheng,美mei联lian储chu在zai加jia息xi问wen题ti上shang已yi经jing陷xian入ru“疯feng狂kuang”,货huo币bi政zheng策ce目mu前qian已yi过guo于yu紧jin缩suo,因yin而er导dao致zhi股gu市shi失shi血xue出chu现xian暴bao跌die。这zhe并bing不bu是shi特te近jin期qi以yi来lai首shou次ci就jiu美mei国guo货huo币bi政zheng策ce问wen题ti给gei出chu类lei似si表biao态tai,但dan如ru此ci严yan厉li的de措cuo辞ci令ling市shi场chang更geng加jia担dan忧you美mei联lian储chu的de独du立li性xing。特te任ren期qi内nei屡lv次ci对dui美mei元yuan和he美mei联lian储chu发fa表biao评ping论lun,与yu传chuan统tong做zuo法fa相xiang悖bei。接jie二er连lian三san的de批pi评ping令ling外wai界jie猜cai测ce特te将jiang解jie雇gu鲍bao威wei尔er,特te在zai接jie受shou采cai访fang时shi,也ye就jiu该gai问wen题ti进jin行xing了le回hui应ying,他ta表biao示shi不bu会hui解jie雇gu鲍bao威wei尔er,只zhi是shi对dui鲍bao威wei尔er感gan到dao失shi望wang。
具ju体ti事shi件jian具ju体ti分fen析xi:川chuan普pu此ci言yan一yi处chu,举ju世shi皆jie惊jing,事shi实shi上shang,这zhe已yi经jing不bu是shi特te近jin期qi以yi来lai首shou次ci就jiu美mei国guo货huo币bi政zheng策ce问wen题ti给gei出chu类lei似si表biao态tai,但dan用yong如ru此ci严yan厉li的de措cuo辞ci抨pin击ji美mei联lian储chu却que还huan是shi令ling市shi场chang观guan察cha人ren士shi吓xia了le一yi大da跳tiao。此ci番fan言yan论lun除chu了le进jin一yi步bu打da压ya美mei元yuan指zhi数shu下xia行xing之zhi外wai,更geng重chong要yao的de是shi,投tou资zi者zhe对dui美mei联lian储chu在zai来lai自zi白bai宫gong的de强qiang化hua压ya力li之zhi下xia能neng否fou保bao持chi政zheng策ce独du立li性xing开kai始shi萌meng生sheng质zhi疑yi,这zhe令ling市shi场chang情qing绪xu更geng加jia变bian得de不bu安an分fen起qi来lai。显xian然ran,特te面mian对dui美mei联lian储chu政zheng策ce再zai度du大da嘴zui一yi张zhang妄wang加jia评ping论lun之zhi举ju,也ye引yin发fa了le各ge路lu“专zhuan业ye”人ren士shi的de口kou诛zhu笔bi伐fa。日ri内nei多duo位wei业ye内nei大da佬lao都dou跳tiao出chu来lai指zhi责ze其qi言yan论lun失shi当dang,并bing为wei美mei联lian储chu鸣ming不bu平ping。面mian对dui公gong众zhong批pi评ping,特te的de首shou席xi经jing济ji顾gu问wen库ku德de洛luo也ye被bei迫po表biao态tai,称cheng将jiang继ji续xu尊zun重chong美mei联lian储chu的de政zheng策ce独du立li性xing。显xian然ran,大da家jia都dou认ren为wei特te因yin为wei股gu市shi暴bao跌die就jiu指zhi责ze美mei联lian储chu加jia息xi过guo快kuai是shi有you失shi偏pian颇po的de,因yin为wei按an照zhao“专zhuan业ye人ren士shi”的de解jie读du,在zai经jing济ji进jin入ru稳wen定ding增zeng长chang周zhou期qi之zhi后hou,货huo币bi政zheng策ce逐zhu步bu收shou紧jin,以yi压ya制zhi通tong胀zhang抬tai头tou和he经jing济ji过guo热re,是shi十shi分fen必bi须xu的de。但dan特te并bing不bu这zhe么me看kan,他ta曾zeng在zai此ci前qian稍shao早zao的de讲jiang话hua中zhong宣xuan称cheng,美mei国guo并bing没mei有you通tong胀zhang明ming显xian抬tai头tou的de迹ji象xiang。而er特te的de这zhe一yi论lun断duan,偏pian偏pian却que得de到dao了le日ri内nei发fa布bu的de美mei国guo通tong胀zhang数shu据ju的de支zhi持chi。数shu据ju显xian示shi,在zai9月yue当dang月yue遭zao遇yu了le飓ju风feng袭xi击ji,同tong时shi国guo际ji油you价jia飞fei涨zhang的de背bei景jing下xia,美mei国guo的de整zheng体ti和he核gai心xin消xiao费fei价jia格ge通tong胀zhang率lv却que意yi外wai不bu及ji预yu期qi。这zhe个ge数shu据ju显xian然ran“打da脸lian”了le美mei联lian储chu及ji其qi各ge路lu“好hao哥ge们men”,却que让rang特te看kan起qi来lai更geng加jia志zhi满man意yi得de,他ta在zai周zhou四si美mei国guo时shi间jian早zao间jian的de讲jiang话hua中zhong,进jin一yi步bu重chong复fu了le前qian一yi日ri的de论lun调tiao。
现xian货huo黄huang金jin从cong技ji术shu面mian上shang来lai看kan,先xian从cong日ri线xian上shang来lai看kan,昨zuo日ri盘pan中zhong金jin价jia相xiang继ji上shang破po1200,1210,1220,最zui高gao已yi探tan至zhi1226美mei元yuan,日ri线xian方fang面mian最zui终zhong录lu得de略lue带dai上shang下xia影ying线xian的de实shi体ti大da阳yang,价jia格ge维wei持chi布bu林lin上shang轨gui上shang方fang,短duan期qi均yun线xian呈cheng多duo头tou排pai列lie,不bu过guo短duan周zhou期qi指zhi标biao已yi有you所suo拐guai头tou下xia行xing,空kong头tou回hui补bu的de需xu求qiu逐zhu步bu加jia剧ju;4小xiao时shi上shang,隔ge夜ye价jia触chu高gao后hou回hui撤che,今jin早zao间jian有you所suo延yan续xu,4小xiao时shi方fang面mian录lu得de实shi体ti小xiao阴yin,确que认ren1226高gao点dian阻zu力li的de有you效xiao,短duan期qi均yun线xian及ji周zhou期qi指zhi标biao相xiang继ji下xia探tan,与yu之zhiK现xian发fa展zhan基ji本ben到dao位wei,4小xiao时shi先xian看kan回hui补bu。操cao作zuo上shang供gong中zhong好hao罗luo易yi彬bin认ren为wei,隔ge日ri金jin价jia大da涨zhang后hou确que认ren进jin一yi步bu上shang行xing格ge局ju,但dan势shi能neng上shang明ming显xian再zai衰shuai竭jie,周zhou期qi指zhi标biao上shang的de回hui撤che修xiu复fu需xu求qiu开kai始shi显xian现xian,因yin此ci今jin日ri盘pan我wo个ge人ren认ren为wei不bu可ke在zai高gao位wei去qu追zhui进jin。上shang方fang阻zu力li1223,1226,下xia方fang支zhi撑cheng1213,1208,操cao作zuo上shang即ji以yi1226-1230一yi线xian为wei高gao点dian博bo回hui撤che,且qie待dai寻xun求qiu支zhi撑cheng稳wen固gu后hou才cai能neng再zai介jie入ru做zuo涨zhang,下xia方fang触chu及ji支zhi撑cheng位wei子zi附fu近jin果guo断duan进jin多duo,不bu用yong有you任ren何he犹you豫shu严yan格ge止zhi损sun止zhi盈ying就jiu可ke以yi了le。
现xian货huo黄huang金jin部bu分fen做zuo单dan点dian位wei:
1,下xia方fang回hui落luo1213-10一yi线xian做zuo多duo,止zhi损sun1207,目mu标biao看kan1218-20一yi线xian;
2,上shang方fang空kong单dan需xu要yao根gen据ju市shi场chang消xiao息xi和he美mei元yuan动dong向xiang决jue定ding进jin场chang点dian位wei,所suo以yi以yi即ji时shi进jin场chang通tong知zhi为wei主zhu。
以yi上shang文wen章zhang由you盈ying世shi瑞rui和he分fen析xi师shi罗luo易yi彬bin撰zhuan写xie,部bu分fen新xin闻wen资zi讯xun内nei容rong摘zhai自zi网wang络luo资zi源yuan,文wen章zhang内nei容rong仅jin供gong参shen考kao,不bu构gou成cheng投tou资zi建jian议yi。投tou资zi有you风feng险xian,投tou资zi者zhe据ju此ci操cao作zuo,风feng险xian自zi担dan,转zhuan载zai请qing注zhu明ming出chu处chu。【原文】
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